By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

A large new study in Australia is debunking myths about the addictive nature of opioid pain medication and how a single prescription can lead to long term use.

In an analysis of nearly 3.5 million Australians who were prescribed opioids for the first time, researchers found that 92% never progressed beyond low opioid use and only 3% became persistent users or needed higher doses. The “sustained use” of opioids occurred mostly in seniors (65 and older) suffering from cancer, depression, anxiety and other chronic health problems.

“Results of this cohort study suggest that most individuals commencing treatment with prescription opioids had relatively low and time-limited exposure to opioids over a 5-year period,” wrote lead author Natasa Gisev, PhD, a clinical pharmacist at National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney.

“The small proportion of individuals with sustained or increasing use was older with more comorbidities and use of psychotropic and other analgesic drugs, likely reflecting a higher prevalence of pain and treatment needs in these individuals.”

Previous research estimated the risk of long-term opioid use as high as 57 percent, but Gisev and her colleagues say those studies are flawed because they excluded people with cancer and opioid use disorder, or used various definitions of long-term use. The Australian researchers took a different approach in tracking opioid prescriptions, developing five “trajectories of opioid use.”

The vast majority of patients had very low (75%) or low use (17%) of opioids. Others started with moderate opioid use and decreased to low use (3%), or began with low use and increased to moderate use (3%). Only 3% became sustained users or took higher doses.

Five-Year Trajectories of Opioid Use

“Overall, these findings suggest that most people who initiate an opioid prescription are likely to have low, time-limited exposure to opioids with little indication of ongoing use. This possibility is an important consideration for policymakers and stakeholders considering population-level prescribing of high-risk drugs,” researchers reported in JAMA Network Open.

“Opioids are essential drugs for acute and cancer pain, and many people with CNCP (chronic non-cancer pain) benefit from opioids. Continued focus and policy responses based on findings from a small group of people with increased risk of harms run the risk of limiting access to people who safely derive objective benefits from opioids.”  

That’s exactly what happened to millions of pain patients in the US, who lost access to opioids due to steep cuts in prescribing, chronic shortages of opioid medication, and a relentless drumbeat in the media about people becoming addicted or overdosing after one pill.  

“One prescription can be all it takes to lose everything,” the CDC said in a 2017 advertising campaign that emphasized the risks of prescription opioids, while ignoring the far more serious problem of illicit fentanyl and other street drugs.

Just how common is opioid addiction? Estimates are all over the map, ranging as low as 1% to as high as 40% for long-term opioid users.

“The problem with all of these studies is that they are retrospective in nature, limited to a particular patient population, and constrained by the diagnostic criteria in use at the time,” my late colleague Roger Chriss pointed out in a 2019 column on opioid addiction.  

Roger was prescient about the imprecision of diagnostic criteria. A little known 2021 study of U.S. veterans who were diagnosed with opioid use disorder (OUD) challenged how many actually had it. Researchers found that nearly 20% of veterans with OUD used prescription opioids without any signs of abuse and evidence was lacking in another 7% of cases. Less than 60% of the veterans had a “high likelihood” of being correctly diagnosed with OUD.